1. Our political and economic systems have mislead us into a worldwide, uncontrolled and dangerous gamble with our planet's ecosystem, our climate and our future. Humans are now facing a situation we have never faced before. This is because our economic activities since the start of the industrial revolution have been pumping greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2) into our atmosphere which are warming our planet uncontrollably. Not only is science showing humanity now has the biggest problem it has ever faced but the world's UN-organised method of dealing with climate change is clearly failing humanity (read more here). In June 2017 President (full-time idiot, psychopath and leader of Disaster Capitalism) Donald Trump announced that the USA was pulling out of the Paris Climate aAgreement of December 2015 (read more in paragraphs 21-4 here).. This has weakened the world's effort to slow down global warming and climate change. Our planet can survive severe climate change but the countless species living on it cannot. More specifically, humans cannot survive the coming climate crisis in anything like our current numbers and human civilisation is now facing a self-made global catastrophe.
2. Only in the last 40 years has it been fully realised that the rise in the CO2 content of the
atmosphere has been causing the earth's atmosphere and oceans to heat up. Most of the warming has taken place in the last 30 or 40 years, and more warming has taken place in the last decade than in any before. Global warming is now out of our control and this is the biggest gamble humans have ever taken. Initially we took this risk in ignorance, but more recently we have continued taking this huge risk with growing knowledge of the dire consequences.
3. Today's rising global temperatures (in the atmosphere and in the oceans) are the result of our increasing industrial emissions from burning fossil fuel since the mid-1700s. That is when we began to increase the CO2 content of our global atmosphere, without understanding what the future consequences would be. And its getting worse : Since 1978 we have emitted more CO2 than in the total of the previous 236 years.
4. Here is NASA's 30-second animation (on YouTube), showing how global temperatures have dramatically increased since 1880 :
5. Climate Science has shown that even if we stopped emitting all CO2 now (which we are not doing) it may then take many centuries or millennia, for global warming to cease, if it ever does. Since the end of 2016 the World Meteorological Association have confirmed that 2016 was the hottest year since record-keeping began. This means that 15 of the hottest years on record have been in the last 16 years. Climate scientists are predicting that our world will continue getting hotter.
6. According to the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), even if we DID stop all emissions immediately we would have to also quickly start removing vast quantities of CO2 from the atmosphere. Unfortunately, we do not have methods for doing that, nevermind doing it in credible timescales. For millions of years that ecological job was done naturally for planet earth by the many great areas of forest around the world. But most of these forests have been or are being destroyed - to make more money for people who are already incredibly rich.
A SHORT VISIT TO FANTASYLAND...
7. The idea of removing vast quantities of CO2 from the atmosphere in a credible timescale is a gross fantasy. This extremely vague hope is that by removing CO2 we might be able to slow down global warming, then gradually stabilise global temperatures and then start cooling the
atmosphere and oceans in the hope that they might eventually return to our recent and familiar, human-friendly temperatures. All of this would take an unknown number of centuries or millennia ! Little thought has been given to how the immense damage we have also done to our global ecology and biodiversity might eventually be put right, so that it might someday become capable once again of sustaining human civilisation (we humans, of course, have needed all the other biodiversity around to evolve and sustain us). Chief Seattle warned us about how we were messing up these connections, as long ago as 1854 !
8. So, the vague fantasy is that, while CO2 levels are somehow being returned (over centuries or millennia) to today's 'normal', some people could survive these catastrophic global problems and conditions which have never before been experienced or lived through by humans. Incidentally, those 'surviving' people would have to keep themselves very busy by inventing (with their limited resources, in their spare time) a means by which they can extract vast quantities of CO2 from the global atmosphere. Nobody else will be around to do this work ! So, at the moment that is apparently humanity's best hope / plan - otherwise known as complete fantasy !
...NOW BACK TO REALITY
9. We should not rush to lay all the blame on the IPCC - at least they have been trying to raise the profile of the problem and ask for action, unlike most governments, international bodies and corporations
who have not reduced emissions. Over the past two decades the IPCC has suggested repeatedly that we should be taking urgent action to do this. But governments and corporations so far have resisted, denied any action is needed, and befuddled their publics. In the meantime global warming (still in its early stages) has already triggered several negative 'feedback loops' in our climate to start operating. These are now well underway and out of our control. These are just some of them :
• the thawing of arctic permafrost is releasing more methane gas - an even worse greenhouse gas than CO2 - into the atmosphere causing more rapid global warming (see 'Methane Burps' below)
• the melting of hundreds of billions of tons per year of polar land ice as well as glaciers is leading to rising sea levels, with much more to come (see more on this below)
• the loss of land and sea ice around the poles means the earth is now reflecting less solar heat back into space and absorbing more of it, thereby accelerating global warming (more on this below).
10. So, the global consequences of our own decisions and fossil-fuel-dependent ways of life are now starting to
show up - in the form of dangerous and uncontrollable climate change. So far we are not doing too well in facing up to the scale or seriousness of this oncoming dangerous global emergency. Younger people alive today face a very uncertain future.
HISTORY HAS CHANGED...ITS NOW CRITICAL
11. Ice around the north and south poles has been laid down in layers over millions of years and, like the annular rings in a tree, each layer can be dated quite accurately to within a few years. Each layer of ice contains tiny air bubbles that were trapped in the ice when it was laid down.
12. During the last few decades scientists have been drilling and extracting ice cores, from gradually deeper levels, i.e. further back in time. They have been analysing the samples of ancient air in these ice cores to reveal the precise composition of chemical particles in the global atmosphere throughout the past 800,000 years.
13. This has given us for the first time an astonishingly complete and accurate record of our past atmosphere and climate. This is a new and incredibly important asset to humanity, particularly in the case of the Antarctic ice cores as that land mass is covered by the deepest and oldest ice sheet on the planet. The Antarctic ice is now telling us a transforming story about the history of our planet - enabling us to see our now critical condition - it is our 'Alarm Bell' or 'Canary in the Mine' and we must pay more attention to it.
14. This research has shown that the CO2 level in our atmosphere has fluctuated over the past 800,000 years, up to a maximum of about 300 parts per million (ppm). However, since about 1880 the CO2 level has risen steeply to its current level of over 400ppm (and is still rising steeply), as shown in this graph :
In the past the global temperature has risen when CO2 levels in the atmosphere have increased. Research has shown this to be very strongly correlated. So, over these 800,000 years when the global CO2 level has risen, global temperature has also risen. When the CO2 level has fallen then the temperature has also fallen. To put this massive human failure fully into perspective : Even if all the measures specified in the 2015 UN Climate Agreement in Paris (remember - they are all voluntary) were actually achieved, the IPCC estimates that by the end of this century the global CO2 level will rise (from its current 400ppm or so) to 675ppm. When climate scientists warn of the oncoming 'global emergency' or 'global catastrophe' this is what they are referring to. The UN Climate Summit in Paris failed humanity by not adopting urgent massive actions to severely reduce the greenhouse gas emissions which are causing global warming and climate change - Read More Here.
15. This ice core research, along with other research in the last three decades, has also shown that ancient climate changes have often happened fast - much faster than we had realised. These ancient climate changes (which have been mostly due to natural solar variations) have all been detected in the ice cores and they show that change often happens very abruptly - in tens of years. So, we now know that big climate changes can be abrupt and that looks like what is happening to us at present. But this is the first such climate change we know is due to human activities - its our fault !
16. The first time global society acknowledged that CO2 emissions were causing global warming was around the Rio Earth Summit in 1992. Since then annual global emissions of CO2 have not been reduced but risen more than 60%. This means that we have placed 'in the pipeline' additional temperature rises for at least 40-80 years into the future. The IPCC is trying to persuade governments that they can act to restrict global warming to only 2°C but many climate scientists are already forecasting 4-5°C of warming. A report published in Autumn 2017 states that there is a 93% probability that there will be a 4°C global temperature rise by the end of the current century That is within the lifetimes of many children alive today. Some are even forecasting up to 7-8°C temperature rises by the latter part of this century. Even if we only get half of that warming it will have catastrophic consequences for us (and all other forms of natural life) such as those described below. These forecasts by Climate Scientists have been getting more dire, as time has passed - while emissions have gone on increasing, year by year.
17. Its worth repeating : Since the end of 2016 the World Meteorological Association have confirmed that 2016 was the hottest year since record-keeping began. This means that 15 of the hottest years on record have been in the last 16 years. Every one of the last 40 years have been hotter than the twentieth century average. Climate scientists predict that our world will continue getting hotter. So, predictably, as the content of CO2 in our atmosphere continues to increase steeply, global warming is also increasing steeply.
18. The biggest, most visible and tangible evidence of today's global warming is the ongoing loss of sea ice from the north and south polar regions and the loss of ice from glaciers (on all continents). The ice in Glaciers is breaking up more quickly than ever before and is melting into rivers and the sea. So, global warming and sea level rise are already underway. Because of our past and current emissions much more warming is already in the pipeline and unstoppable, for at least several decades, and possibly many centuries, into the future.
THE CONSEQUENCES FOR US AND OUR PLANET :
LOSS OF ARCTIC ICE
19. The melting of the Arctic land and sea ice around the north pole is now well underway, removing the white 'mirror' effect that reflects solar heat back into space. So, our planet is now absorbing more solar heat and warming out of control. The loss of Arctic ice (both from land and sea) is one key 'tipping point' about which scientists have been warning. Within a few years we are likely to see the first summer in which the arctic sea ice melts completely - not good for humans, but even worse for Polar Bears.
20. We are already losing the land ice sheets, including the biggest in the northern hemisphere, on Greenland. This ice has been melting away into the oceans at the rate of 260 billion metric tonnes each year in recent years (source : NASA). Due to the CO2 we have already pumped into our atmosphere it appears certain that these Arctic land ice sheets will disappear into the rivers and sea, probably within the next few decades. This alone will result in a global sea level rise of around 7.4 metres (24.3 feet). This will flood : Many of the world's capital cities and biggest cities, thousands of towns, ports,
harbours, many nuclear power stations, thousands of island populations, many of the world's prime food-growing regions, many of the world's biggest industrial farms. It will force homelessness on billions of people, create hundreds of millions of 'climate refugees' (including in 'developed' countries), massive global food shortages, and migrations of refugees on a scale never before seen in human history. These are only a few examples which will contribute to widespread governmental and system breakdowns. These big problems will cascade down to a multitude of consequences that are likely to overwhelm human civilisation in its current form. Many climate scientists consider these problems could get well underway in the next 40-50 years, more quickly in many low-lying parts of the world which will go under the sea earlier.
FAILURES OF GLOBAL GOVERNANCE - AND MORE TO COME !
21. No governments or international authorities have yet told us what they plan to do soon to restrict this warming. They have not yet even agreed on a plan that can actually halt the emissions that are causing the problem. The UN 'Climate Summit' in Paris in December 2015 failed humanity badly. It showed that the big nations who emit most of the world's CO2 and other greenhouse gases are not even going to start reducing their emissions
with any urgency. 'Developed' nations such as the USA, Britain and others are also racing ahead with gas 'Fracking', another way of increasing CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions on a massive scale. Instead of this, we really should be leaving all fossil fuels in the ground and switching - rapidly - to renewable energy sources and energy conservation, on a global scale.
22. Also, no governments or international authorities have told us what the actual consequences of the six metre sea level rise would be or how they plan to address the approaching chaos and costs. Are they 'asleep on the job' or in denial ? Or are they actually trying to delude us into thinking they have it all under control and we need not worry ? The truth is they are doing all three of these things. Scientists have for many years been predicting there will also be increases in the frequency, extent and severity of extreme weather events and this is already happening. Although these will grow to catastrophic proportions - the truth is they will not be our biggest problems.
LOSS OF ANTARCTIC ICE
23. Moving our focus to the Antarctic land ice (around the south pole), this has been melting away into the sea at the rate of 164 billion metric tonnes each year in recent years (source : NASA). The loss of all the Antarctic land ice, if it takes place, would happen over a very long period - or at least that is the current thinking. If it all melted then this would lead to a sea level rise of around 60 metres (200 feet). However, even if this only partly disappeared (say 10%, for example), it would add to problems which are much larger than any yet faced during the history of humanity. Many people are wrongly assuming that even a partial loss of this ice could only happen over thousands of years and that humans will have plenty of time to adapt. However, that is not true because geological and environmental research has clearly shown that some big changes in the past have happened more quickly - in decades, rather than millennia.
24. Because both the atmosphere and the oceans are now warming, some Antarctic ice is already disappearing more quickly. Among scientists currently studying the Antarctic there is a big concern about the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. This ice sheet is on the land and coastline of the long peninsular that sticks out north from Antarctica, towards Tierra del Fuego at the southern end of South America. One part of this concern has been with the Larsen Ice Shelf which has been breaking up, floating off and melting into the ocean. The British Antarctic Survey (BAS) has reported that
"the collapse of ice shelves and land-ice reduction near coastal West Antarctica has been driven by warm ocean currents under the ice shelves." It also states that : "...temperatures in this region have risen around 3.2°C during the past 60 years (about 10 times the global average) a rise only matched in Alaska and Siberia...It is now accepted that the waters of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current are warming more rapidly than the global ocean as a whole." The Director of the BAS has stated that if this one ice sheet is lost then it would lead to a sea level rise of about 4-7 metres. Note : The combined loss of the Arctic ice and this West Antarctic ice sheet would lead to a sea level rise of 10 to 13 metres (30 to 40 feet). The consequences for humans would be catastrophic. This could happen within the lifetimes of people alive today. The UN Paris Climate Summit showed that our political and economic 'leaders' display no urgency about cutting global CO2 emissions and taking avoiding action.
WARMING OF THE PERMAFROST REGIONS - AND THE 'METHANE BURP'
25. Another consequence of climate change is the warming of permafrost regions (in Alaska, Canada, Greenland, northern Europe and Russia). As the permafrost thaws it is releasing CO2 and methane gas in enormous quantities. Methane gas is another greenhouse gas and it has a very damaging effect on our climate - up to 50 times greater than CO2. Some of this methane gas is in Siberian permafrost and some below the russian arctic ocean, off the north-east of Russia and close to Alaska. (This region was mentioned in 25 above as already warming 10 times faster than the global average !) Recently, hundreds of toxic plumes of methane gas, many a kilometre wide, have for the first time been observed bubbling up from the ocean. In recent years hundreds of large craters have been left by underground explosions of methane gas in Siberian permafrost regions. So, vast quantities of Methane gas have begun to be released into our atmosphere. This is accelerating global warming.
26. As these regions thaw there could be a relatively quick release of Gigatons of methane gas (one Gigaton = 1,000 million tons). A sudden release like this is known as a 'Methane Burp'. Massive releases could take place over a period
of days or weeks, rather than years or decades. This is another critical 'tipping point' that scientists have been warning us about. Because methane has a far bigger warming effect than C02, a big Methane Burp will greatly accelerate the speed of global warming. It will also speed up the onset of extreme weather and the rate of sea level rises. Even without this Methane Burp, it is worth repeating what was stated above : Since the end of 2016 the World Meteorological Association have confirmed that 2016 was the hottest year on record. So, fifteen of the hottest years on record have been in the last sixteen years. Climate scientists are predicting that global temperature will continue increasing. As global warming is speeding up more ice and permafrost is melting, more methane is being released to accelerate global warming. These are the early stages of runaway global warming - and we humans are not yet tackling this as the global emergency that it really is
FAILURES OF INTERNATIONAL GOVERNANCE & OUR INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTIONS - LED BY CORPORATIONS
27. So, we know that we have a global climate crisis building up. It is developing into the biggest problem humans have ever faced. Yet most of the international political and economic institutions that should be tackling this potentially dire situation have proven that they will not make the big changes that the world community and economy badly needs to make. Both the neoliberal and the communist approaches to economics are seriously defective, and both are contributing to global warming and climate change.
28. The United Nation's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is leading the world's scientific understanding of these rapidly approaching problems but it faces hostility from governments and corporations. So, global climate policy has been gridlocked since the early 1990s. Since then annual emissions have risen over 60%. As a consequence, plenty of climate experts (frustrated by this lack of action) are describing the IPCC conclusions as too weak. The failure of the UN Climate Summit in Paris has confirmed their worst fears. They now fear that serious climate change may overwhelm economies and political systems - and humanity - more quickly because preventive action is not being taken.
29. One of the main reasons why governments and international bodies are failing to take action is that corporate influence is stopping them. The big corporates are acting in what they (short-sightedly) perceive to be their own self-interest - with psychopathic greed on a monumental scale. This is one aspect of the fundamentalist neoliberal economic belief system that now dominates our world. It is as dangerous as any other fundamentalism. In recent decades even communist China has joined in ! For many years corporations have been spending $billions
on their permanent and massive global campaign to discredit or ignore both the IPCC and the thousands of Scientific bodies around the world whose research has provided us with the uncomfortable and alarming truth about climate change. These corporations are spending $billions on : PR, lobbying, suppression of news stories, funding false 'science', funding climate change deniers, funding big-business-friendly political parties and governments, and funding anything else they can think of to prevent change and hold back real progress. These corporations had a larger impact on the failure of the UN Climate Summit in Paris than any other group because they had more impact on (and in) the big governments than all the other nations combined. Some of these corporations also own large chunks of the press and media and they have been using these over decades to promote climate change denial. These are just a few examples of corporations at their worst - unfortunately, there are many other examples.
30. Globally destructive corporatism will probably, for the forseeable future, continue to severely constrain the IPCC in its efforts to get governments to take credible steps to avoid and reduce Climate Change. As yet, there are no signs that the International Criminal Court (or any other international bodies) are going to bring in laws or prosecute any people, governments or corporations who are causing this global catastrophe. That is what is really needed now, but we are very far from this kind of legal action and that is another indicator of how the global governance system is entirely complicit in this growing catastrophe. It is failing us all. All of this has given rise to the protest slogan : 'SYSTEM CHANGE NOT CLIMATE CHANGE', seen at protests around the world by citizens demanding change.
...AND WHAT WILL FUTURE GENERATIONS SAY ABOUT US ?
31. To bring this massive problem into focus :
• Just ten countries in the world account for about 70% of the world's annual CO2 emissions.
• Two countries - the U.S.A. and China - are currently responsible for 45% of the world's annual CO2 emissions.
• Two-thirds of man-made global warming emissions were produced by just 90 corporations - Chevron, Exxon and the BP corporation being the biggest polluters.
32. So, this is where big changes need to start - and soon. The political systems and economies of the U.S.A., the U.K. and some other countries are soaked in neoliberal values and assumptions. So, all their main political parties have been extreme in giving business and corporations 'freedoms' (to plunder anything they want) - regardless of the cost to the rest of us and
our planet. This extreme support for corporate power and neoliberalism also runs through all key parts of the U.N., through the IMF, the World Bank, the European Union, and most of the world's big international institutions. The top of the U.N. structure has been supportive of the neoliberal agenda. But many other specific agencies of the U.N. that try to deliver practical programmes to solve the problems arising in this (defective) world order have been achieving many useful things, often in atrocious circumstances - and they deserve great credit for their expertise, bravery and hard work. However, there is clearly no way that the current world political and economic system will be able to cope with the catastrophic results arising from global warming and climate change. Governments, corporations and international institutions have done (and are still doing) so much to make the problems worse.
33. A British Government Report in 2006 said that climate change could cost between 5% and 20% of the annual global GDP. It also estimated that spending of just 1% of global GDP was needed to lessen the most damaging effects of climate change. These 2006 estimates look more like gross underestimates, as each year of inaction has passed. The UN's Climate Summit in Paris failed us all. We did not get an immediate step change to drastically and urgently reduce CO2 and other emissions.
34. We are the first generations in human history to know that a new set of warmer climatic conditions are taking shape and to know that our activities are a big cause of this. Our descendants (there may be many fewer than we currently think) will curse our generations for causing the problem and for failing to act when we knew what we should do.
35. Ultimately, of course, our planet is indifferent to us, it can survive without humans. However, we cannot survive without it and the narrow set of climatic conditions in which we have evolved. Those conditions are now under serious threat - from ourselves.
FOOTNOTE : WHAT IS IT LIKE TO BE CONDEMNED BEFORE YOU ARE EVEN BORN ?
In October 2013 Christiana Figueres the Head of a UN body responsible for delivering a global treaty on Climate Change broke down in tears when talking in London about the impact of global warming on
future generations. She told the BBC that failures to get a global agreement are "condemning future generations before they are even born."
Speaking alongside a Climate Conference in London she said "I'm committed to climate change because of future generations, it is not about us, right ? We are out of here," she said. "I just feel that it is so completely unfair and immoral what we are doing to future generations, we are condemning them before they are even born." "We have a choice about it, that's the point, we have a choice. If it were inevitable then so be it, but we have a choice to change the future we are going to give our children."
Christiana Figueres' words point to possibly the key moral question of our age : Are we destroying the future we are giving to our children and to their children ?
Christiana Figueres words resonate closely with the words of Chief Seattle's Letter (from 1854) about the 'white man' who was then destroying indigenous cultures and people across north american : "He kidnaps the earth from his children, and he does not care...His appetite will devour the earth and leave behind only a desert." Although Chief Seattle could not have known of today's global warming and climate change, his words and hers share a moral concern that has now become perhaps the key moral question of the human era.
Costa Rica-born Christiana Figueres was Executive Secretary of the United Nations Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) from 2010-16.